Macroeconomics

In Q1 2015, the region picked up growth, owing to favorable conditions like low-oil prices, improving Eurozone economy, and global economic conditions. However, it gradually started subsiding from Q2 2015, as ongoing crisis in Ukraine, contraction in Russia, weak performance of the external sector coupled with soft growth rates in Hungary and Polan...

Depressed investor confidence and the on-going deadlock in Ukraine remain major hindrances to growth for Emerging Europe for the rest of 2015. Encouraging factors such as improved private consumption, increasing industrial production, and exports are expected to expedite the growth momentum for the Czech Republic and Poland. However, the contractio...

The growth outlook of Q2 2015 for Emerging Middle East and African remains strong undeterred by the shrinkage in oil revenue. Declining oil prices aggravate the essence of diversification and thus, non-oil sectors like agriculture, banking, finance and tourism are anticipated to play a substantial role in the progress of the economy in H2 2015. Rap...

The Western European countries were recovering gradually in Q1 2015 mainly driven by a stronger domestic demand and an improvement in private consumption. A favorable combination of subdued global oil prices, a weak Euro and European Central Bank’s aggressive trillion-Euro monetary stimulus is poised to drive the growth of the Western European ec...

Emerging Europe is expected to witness a repressed growth of about 2.2% in H2 2015 due to bearish investor confidence and ongoing dilemma associated with the Greek and Ukraine crisis. Although economic growth in most of the regional countries is expected to gather momentum in Q3 and Q4 2015, led by Czech Republic and Romania, the contraction in Rus...

BRICS countries are expected to end 2014 on a low note, owing to various domestic as well as external factors. Weak global recovery is taking a toll on the external demand of these countries, while high consumer prices are likely to hinder strong private consumption growth in the coming quarters. Investors’ sentiments remain uncertain in Q4 2014,...

Despite slowdown, BRICS economies are likely to drive global growth in 2015, with India and China witnessing 2–3% higher growth than the global average of 3.5%. Lower oil prices will continue to support steady consumption growth in oil importing countries such as India, China, and South Africa. However, Russia and Brazil are likely to suffer from...

Robust improvement in consumption demand, generous government support, and improvement in public sector spending on infrastructure are expected to register steady growth in the Middle East and Africa in 2015. However, pragmatic macroeconomic policies to stabilize the global oil price fluctuations at $50to $60 per barrel in 2015 are likely to remain...

Economic recovery of the Middle Eastern economies is anticipated to be weaker in H1 2014 because of the increase in regional security concerns, ongoing political unrest, weak economic policies, and sluggish recovery of the global economy. Fiscal and external deficits will remain major areas of concern, especially in countries most adversely affecte...